AI investment decisions
AI Business Case Validator
“Will this AI initiative repay its token and delivery spend?”
Why teams buy this
- The decision
- Will this AI initiative repay its token and delivery spend?
- Cost of a wrong call
- Token, inference and licence spend that keeps running after the promised benefit fails to arrive.
- What you'd do otherwise
- Commission an advisory assessment, have an analyst build a spreadsheet, or accept the vendor's ROI model. None of these discounts a claim by the strength of its evidence.
- What you see first
- Every benefit claim with its evidence strength, an evidence-adjusted return for each initiative, and the likely and pessimistic dates spend breaches budget.
- Sample result
- $12.21M of claimed annual benefit, of which $4.35M (36%) is backed by evidence. Fund 2, pilot 6, stop or redesign 2. Meridian Retail Group, a fictional retailer. Illustrative sample data.
- Start here
- Fill it in free on the website, then run it on your own numbers with the 30-day Decision Sprint: $99 one-off, unlimited runs, no subscription. Or try the free Business Soundcheck first. Run it on the website
What it shows
- A portfolio map of evidence confidence against evidence-adjusted ROI.
- Every benefit claim with the strength of the evidence behind it.
- A 12-month forecast of tokens, inference and licences, and when spend breaches budget.
- Six warning signs of funding on excitement rather than evidence.
Outcomes
- Claimed benefits discounted by evidence, set against the full run cost.
- A dated, costed proof for every initiative that goes to pilot.
- Spend avoided by stopping what has not earned funding, shown in dollars.
Built for: CIOs, CFOs and AI steering groups deciding which AI initiatives to fund.
Product specification
Seven report pages: AI Portfolio Control Tower, Benefit Claims & Evidence, AI Spend Forecast, Value vs Cost, Shiny-Object Check, Funding Decisions & Proof Gates, and a Methodology appendix.
Each piece of evidence moves confidence in a claim by its strength, and contradicting evidence pulls it down. Token spend is modelled per conversation or task, including retrieval context, and run as a Monte Carlo forecast with likely (P50) and pessimistic (P90) budget breach dates. Decision rules sort each initiative into fund, pilot with a proof gate, or stop.
- Pages
- 7
- Forecast
- 12 months, P50 / P90
- Decision
- Fund · Pilot · Stop
- Format
- Power BI (PBIP), CSV inputs
How it's delivered: days, not months
- ScopeA short call to agree the decision it needs to support and which data you already have.
- LoadYour exports go into the model's CSV templates. No live connection to your systems is needed to start.
- RunThe model runs on your data, and every number traces back to its inputs and the documented method.
- Hand overYou keep the Power BI file, its design walkthrough and engineering companion, or our practitioners run it with you each month.
What's in the box · AI Business Case Validator pack
Power BI report
- AI Portfolio Control Tower
- Benefit Claims & Evidence
- AI Spend Forecast
- Value vs Cost
- Shiny-Object Check
- Funding Decisions & Proof Gates
- Appendix — Methodology
Guides
- Design Walkthrough, 19 pages (PDF and Word)
- Engineering Companion, 26 pages (PDF and Word)
- Agent implementation kit: ordered steps with a check at each one, a file manifest with checksums, a JSON Schema for every data file and a validator, so an AI agent or engineer can implement it without guesswork
Data
5 configuration · 5 synthetic sample data CSV files. The sample organisation is Meridian Retail Group, a fictional retailer (USD, as at 30 Sep 2026); no real client data is included.
How results are calculated
Evidence confidence, the 12-month spend simulation and the fund / pilot / stop decisions are calculated by Signal Band's AI Business Case engine before the data is loaded. The pack ships the sample organisation's calculated results. The calibration stays with the engine. To recalculate with your own initiatives, run the ai-business-case engine through the API or MCP server (10 credits a run, same maths as the pack).
Verify your install: the guide lists 4 numbers the report must show on the sample data.
You need
- Power BI Desktop (Windows)
Not included
- Implementation support
- Technical support beyond documentation
- Practitioner interpretation (available as Practitioner Review)
One-off payment, no subscription. One organisation. 12 months of updates. Every download is stamped with your licence record. Digital products are delivered immediately, so purchases are not refundable except where the law requires (your Australian Consumer Law rights are not affected). Licence terms.
Three ways to use it
Self-serve · engine
Run the AI Business Case Engine
Fill in a guided form on the website and get the decision back in seconds, or call it from the API or MCP server. Unlimited runs for 30 days with the $99 Decision Sprint for this check.
Run it on the website API and MCPSelf-serve · Power BI
Buy the pack · $690
The Power BI report, guides, sample data and agent implementation kit listed above. One organisation, 12 months of updates, no support.
With a practitioner
Set up and run with you
A practitioner runs it on your data and interprets the result. Sized per client, starting with a $750 Practitioner Review.
Book a walkthroughSee AI Business Case Validator running on your own data.
